4/2016

4/2016 - ATLANTIS

 

This issue of Atlantis, the last of 2016, dedicates to the Information Dossier theme (and disinformation), with all its global strategic implications.

Prestigious interview with the Deputy Ambassador of Israel in Rome.

Continues in this issue, the address book of the World and Diseases with Diabetes.

The Focus country is dedicated to Brazil.

Among other contributions of this edition, it is to emphasize those of Roman Toppan, Luca Baraldi and Riccardo Palmerini and newcomers Serena Antoniazzi and Antonio Gesualdi.

It enriches the issue an article of the historian Ennio Savi.

Important piece to that of the General Marco Bertolini.

Editorial

Editorial - ATLANTIS

When America changes, 

changes the whole world

Welcome back Old America, welcome back dear Old Party. Donald Trump, a Republican, is the forty-fifth President of the United States. He became it after an electoral race, from the inner to the victory over Hilary Clinton Democratic primaries, played on polemical tones that have reached peaks of polemic and vulgarity unusual. Trump is a second generation entrepreneur of German origin. His biography is totally new for an American President. Married and divorced several times, he does not have the aplomb nor the traditional curriculum of his predecessors. He is a new man, as it was Donald Reagan. He likes to eat her Sunday dinners a few blocks from Trump Tower, New York, in an Italian restaurant together with his young children, preferring routinely chopping board of cold cuts and Italian cheeses, pappardelle, ossobuco and tiramisu. He highly appreciates Italian wines. No one can say today whether it will be a good president as it was Reagan. Who had vote for Trump and why? It tells us Maurizio Molinari, managing director of La Stampa and keen observer of American affairs. “It is the revolt of the white tribes of America to have won the presidential elections that brought Donald J. Trump at the White House. It is largely composed of middle-class families plagued by the effects of globalization, with strongholds in the workers states of the Midwest and of the region of Appalachians, of Anglo-Celtic an Anglo-Saxon origin, distrustful of the federal government and bearer of an idea of ​​freedom based on the right to prosperity, the white tribe has felt assaulted during the eight years of the Obama presidency “. Still Molinari: “It is a tribe for which economic rights are more important than those civilians, that is not upset by the vulgarity of Trump and hopes to «restore the America of the origins» as explained by the survey of the «Public Religion Research Institute » talking about a coalition of white men, workers and without a degree. Hillary Clinton in one of the mistakes of the campaign called them “déplorables” (miserable) and it is this silent majority that in the last 11 months went to vote en masse - as it had never done - by defeating in quick succession political dynasties which in the past thirty years have led Washington: the Bush and the Clinton. All this happened in spite of a demography that awards the sum of minorities, rejecting the first woman who could become president, humiliating the bipartisan establishment, the Hollywood stars, the army of pollsters and almost all of the media. Since America is a revolutionary nation, where populism established itself with the election of Andrew Jackson in 1829, it is a phenomenon that deserves respect even by those who do not share it. Especially as concerns us being very similar to the discomfort of the middle class in Europe has generated the British Brexit and feeds a heterogeneous galaxy of protest movements, from France to Germany to our country.” The analysis is faultless. The fact is that the real news lies elsewhere and is that America is still ruled by a white majority and not Catholic nor radical chic. It won the deep and popular America. The America of the Colt in his holster and rare T-Bone Steak in the pot; Country America of the border; America that feels itself an exception to the rest of the World; America fearful of the state and it feels the Lighthouse on the Hill; America of Baseball and Budweiser; America of the Pick-up and Coca-Cola. He won against all odds and predictions of analysts, professors and journalists. Who made an epoch-making a bad impression. Why? Because they do not live among the people. Meanwhile, they are mostly in New York and Washington. At most they are moving between Philadelphia, Chicago and Boston. But the deep America (though despised by the liberal and snobby left) is made up of farmers, artisans and breeders, small and medium entrepreneurs in the vast majority living in the province and not in the metropolis. Italians observers, then, are also conditioned by the traditional historical closeness to the Democrats, although with important exceptions, starting from the Republican mayor of New York, Fiorello La Guardia and then Rudolph Giuliani. During the election campaign, Trump has outlined what will be his economic policy: lower taxes, less social policies and pushing more to traditional economy. Trump certainly President Trump will not be the arrogant and provocative actor we met on the campaign trail. Which foreign policy will he implement? The democratic Wilsonism will be sidelined for a pragmatic foreign policy. He did not know yet the style of it and will be the case to wait the appointment of the Secretary of State to learn more about it. Republican presidencies have had so many different foreign policies but maybe it is likely a resemblance to that of Reagan than to that of Bush or the same great Richard Nixon led by the formidable Henry Kissinger. Franco Venturini, on Corriere della Sera, writes: “On paper Trump belongs to the field of isolationists, while Hillary Clinton was moving in that of the interventionists. The ideological label might lose strength during the presidency, but something surely will remain, and will make vain the promise of a new dominant America. Rather, America turned in on itself will strengthen the nascent multi-polarity dominated by regional powers and possible theater of regional wars. Supposing that the interests of the strong American powers allow Trump to an outlet of this kind, and that the Republican Congress approves.” Still Venturini: “Europe knows that it is expected for harsh electoral tests in the next twelve months. It knows that in the ballot box the nationalist-populist wave can push it towards disintegration. And now it has to face the Trump incognita. The new president gave the impression of not consider the EU except for “good business”. When he spokes of Europe he has mostly talked about NATO, warning the Allies that they will have to pay a lot more for their safety if they want the Alliance still has a future. It also advance new priorities: the fight against terrorism and illegal immigration, without being obsessed by the confrontation with Russia. Therefore problems and divisions in sight, but in theory also a great opportunity: if Europe does not understand to have to grow up now, it never will do it. Putin won his real battle, which was that of the defeat of the tricky Hillary Clinton. But he would be wrong to make himself too many illusions about Trump. The new president will have a pragmatic approach: if our number one enemy is Isis and so it is for Russia is better to find an agreement and beat it together. There is the tear of Crimea, of course, but it cannot block everything, and sanctions need to be rethought. That Russia will throw into the arms of China, then, it is not a good result. Therefore, with the Kremlin we have to discuss of everything and convergences are not excluded. Putin has something to be happy. But America will not be pliable or defeatist, as Hillary campaign declared with scandal. And Putin will have to do its part in a possible new reset. Game to be played. Will be strengthened the ties with Israel, great expectations for those with Saudi Arabia. Even with China relations are all to be determined after repeated boutades during the election campaign, aimed at capturing the worker electorate vote. In Egypt, Al Sisi is definitely happier of a Trump presidency rather a Clinton presidency. A strong relationship with Trump could help Libya that most interests us, because General Haftar, Cyrenaica master, is closely tied to the interests of Cairo.

As for international trade, Trump has heralded a return to protectionism and he does not look favorably the TTIP with Europe, it threaten the North American NAFTA, he does not exclude to go out of the WTO. We hope they were just slogans and that the Trump President mend his ways. These however, the first declaration of the new President: “I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone. All peoples and all nations. We will seek a meeting point, and not hostility. Collaborations and not conflicts”.

Finally. Perhaps, to professors, to professional politicians, to Italians and Europeans public techno-bureaucrats will not like him but on the other side of the Atlantic the American people has won (again).

 

Global Security: by Marco Ber

Global Security: by  Marco Ber - ATLANTIS

 Italy and "the International Community"

analysis of a crisis

 by Generale Marco Bertolini

 All around us, in the Euro-Mediterranean area of which we represent the centre part, the point in which from the Roman society first and Christian one then came the idea of ​​the West, are occurring epochal crisis that they will deliver to our children a different world and much more difficult and dangerous than the one in which we lived, children of war and spectators of the cold war.

It is a reality that is being imposed to the general awareness, even if overrides often the temptation to be limited to a microanalysis of each crisis situations, under the illusion to work them out. Doing so, however, you lose the overview of what continues to recur as the usual long-established confrontation between the US and Russian interests, that does not leave us nothing but the resigned role of the bit parts, and often of the victims, of the friction between the two giants.

This situation is particularly dangerous for a country like Italy, geographically exposed like no other and that, although this, it seems to have enthusiastically opted for the refuse to identify national “genuine” interests to defend. On the contrary, it normally prefers flatten out over those of an International Community (IC) changing, volatile and very difficult to define.

Plays a key role in this passive approach a constitutional setting that seems made to cut us off from reality.

The example of the useless article 11 of the Constitution is emblematic: beyond the inconsistency of a “repudiation” (of the war) which can only be rhetorical, this stance prevents Italy to come to terms (at least in words) with a constant of the history and takes away dignity to the military instruments of which however it continues to be provided with (the Armed Forces). Consequently, in our country we have to follow those who do not harbor aforementioned qualms and that continue to be well determined to pursue their own interests - obviously disguised as “common” interests - by all means, including war. And I do not speak of some despotic African or middle Asian regimes, but of countries such as the US superpower, as well as Russia, Great Britain and France, to remain within the European scope. As regards Germany, it does not comment about for obvious reasons, but it continues for some time to maintain healthy and exercise a definitely important military instrument that is further upgrading.

So, International Community above all and first of all. But what are we talking about? The idea of ​​community that in the desires of many deluded should ensure dignity to an our supposed vocation to liabilities in the international field is what should realize in a deep community of values ​​and interests, most notably that of peace. Peace first of all, indeed. But it is actually the case? No, and confirm it precisely the crisis that surround us.

Let’s start with that closest to us and for which we are paying a very considerable price, Libya. The IC was that which, blatantly contradicting all previous Italian initiatives in that country, in its Anglo-French connotation, pseudo-NATO and para-EU, in 2011 it decided to unilaterally intervene, completely disregarding by our interests and even from our view of main neighbour to that area. One might wonders if it would behave in the same way, namely by presenting us with a fait accompli, if in the Boot there had been any other State, not necessarily one of those previously mentioned. But anyhow that in any case it pardoned us to jump on his bandwagon of exporters of democracy and progress up to make us sharers in or complicit of the creation of the situation that is delighting us more than half a decade. In short, the IC removed us from a very favourable position in the market of Libyan hydrocarbons, it put at risk many of our companies after decades of darkness had managed to re-install in Libya and now it exposes us into a momentous migratory flow, from which the good relations with Gaddafi put us in a safe place.

Today, in its European representation (EU) is supporting us in the huge work of rescue of hundreds of thousands of economic migrants who take the sea clandestinely from the coast of Tripolitania to our shores, however, being very careful to take them off only to us and keep them confined to the south of the Alps. A good try of solidarity!

As to the political situation in Libya, in its ONU representation the IC, after having supported the parliament in Tobruk for a long time and its General Haftar (man of the USA, it was said), it performed in the classic jump of quail, pass through the support of Serraj, new Prime Minister in Tripoli, in turn supported by pro-Islamist militias of Misrata. And it is especially at this point that the Community has ceased to be such: it is in fact divided into two, with one part led by the UN and the US alongside Serraj aiming for a united Libya and allegedly under the protection of UN / USA / NATO (the EU will adapt), while another part continues to support Tobruk. The latter does not hide the expectation of a division of the country to open to France the possibility to exploit the oilfields of the petroleum half moon, allows Russia to prevent another country under American tutelage, perhaps reserving to it an additional alternative Mediterranean outlet or complementary to Tartus, and it does not go down the Egyptian territorial ambitions in the east of the country, at least at the level of interference. Italy, obviously and fairly, is part of the first group and one wonders what its strategic location is connected to the strange obstinacy with which he began to ride the Regeni case after a long period of merciless court to Egypt, denying now any possibility of honourable escape, tight as he did in a corner of accusations that are difficult to prove they are equally to refute.

On the European front, the IC strongly suffers the burden of the global interests of the United States that pushing NATO and consequently its local virtual representation, the EU, to a strong contrast with their Russian competitor. Hence, the strengthening of the north side, with the excuse to silence the concerns of the Baltic States and of Poland but above all to allow the US to move far to the right its presence in what twenty years ago it was the territory of the Warsaw Pact. A little further south, however, looms the dreadful Ukrainian crisis, for which there are still visible way out. In this country, in fact, the whale on the one hand a great opportunity for US to exclude forever Russia from the Black Sea, depriving it of the bases in the Crimea, and from the Russian side on the contrary continues to materialize the risk of being cut off permanently from Europe and from all forms of presence in the Mediterranean. So, a development to not miss from the American side and an opposite threat to be avoided in the Russian field that led to the current situation of armed stalemate.

And here, at this point, reappear the same IC, in its NATO and EU events, more than ever determined to cut the Russian bear nails using one of the classic instruments of pressure of all time, the penalties. It is a pity that with them, which absolutely not undermine the US economy that have very strongly desired them, in addition to bear nails fall also to the teeth of the rest of Europe - and especially of Italy - tied to Russia by close economic and business commitments now put them at risk, as well as by a territorial continuity that on the contrary there is not with “the American island” (an ocean to the west, one to east and a well fortified fence to south).

On closer inspection, this situation is strictly connected to what is happening also in the Middle East, with particular reference to Syria, where Russia intervened to put a patch to on the troubles done by hypocritical western aversion for “dictatorships”, but especially to put under cover her remaining abilities to be present in the Mediterranean after the risks occurred in Ukraine. The naval base of Tartus, in fact, is the traditional landing point of the Russian Black Sea Fleet ships based in Sevastopol in the Crimea, and its loss would represent a deadly weak point. So, Russia can not withdraw from Syria for much of the reasons why it can not leave the Crimea (and Ukraine). In this context it is also part of the Russian activism aimed to obtain more space in the basin, after the US request to Montenegro to join NATO (Montenegro into NATO!), reducing to a minimum the possibilities to find other landings in non-hostile countries in Mare Nostrum. The recent Egyptian opening for the use for this purpose of the base of Sidi el Barrani could represent an important turning point in its favour.

There is no doubt that the most painful point of this momentous political and military tension is represented by the Middle East (or better, the Near East, for us), with particular reference to Syria and Iraq. For the first time since the Cuban crisis, in fact, especially in Syria you run a real risk of face-off between the US and Russia that could lead to a general conflagration. Russia, for the above-written reasons, it is in fact militarily intervened, blocking the ISIS and Jabath Al Nusra advances (Jabath Fatah al Sham, after a recent cosmetic terminology operation to conceal the ancient Qaedist roots) but above all freezing the US attempt (and Saudi and Turkish and UAE and Qatar and the Israeli and French...) to replace Assad with a favourable regime. And now, faced with the prospect of a Syrian victory (and Russian and Iranian and of Hezbollah) with the liberation of Aleppo by terrorists as previously happened in Palmira (a very important event not only from the symbolic point of view but strangely ignored by all the media), appears unpleasant at the prospect of a Mediterranean with a strong presence of Russia, determined to play again the global power. The media campaign (STRATCOM - Strategic Communication) aimed at present as war crimes the Russian and Syrian attempts to clear east Aleppo from terrorists and the sudden activism against Mosul, after years of military suppleness, can not remove the doubt that everything is especially aimed at preventing that from now to a few months there is only one winner on the field, Russia with its allies, with the consequences for “the West”, forced for some time to consider some of them “terrorists”.

Returning to the national interests, also in this case there is no significant overlap between the Italians and those of the Coalition lead by the US. The Assad regime is notoriously very close to the many Christian communities in the country, which should not be indifferent to that home of Christianity that is now wrongly regarded Italy, and the Syrian Armed Forces, with the significant contribution of Hezbollah, it should the release and safety of numerous ancient and local Christian communities. In addition, there is no doubt that the fall of Assad by the terrorists would not mean the end of the war but the likely beginning of a new phase, with the Kurds, Turks, Sunnis and Shiites all at war with each other, passionately; not to mention the obvious US, Israeli, French and British interferences to put into account. The consequences of such a situation in the close Lebanon, which has just succeed to elect a President of the Republic after more than two years of crisis, would be devastating and from the east coast of the Mediterranean could start a traffic migration to our shores able to embarrass the epochal one in place from Libya.

In short, it is a chaos.

Finally, a reflection on the issue arise in Italy of “European Army”, military transposition of the falling in love for the idea of ​​International Community that it is not clear from what is derived, given the precedents. It is an attempt to involve European countries in continental security issues, with fits-all solutions. Actually it limits itself to a sterile discussion, without the possibility of achievement for the different perceptions that the single countries have of themselves, in the international context. How to reconcile, for example, the French military activism in southern Sahara and the Middle East, or the British as part of the Community “five eyes” around the world, with the attitude folded on its domestic problems of our country?

It is, in my humble point of view, of an ingenuous and awkward attempt to give dignity to our “constitutional” lack of interest in military matters and related to the defence; a kind of desperate offer to others about our “military sovereignty”, seen the annoyance with which for many reasons (all absurd) we do not want to take on it since decades. It is, finally, a way to strengthen a vocation to “being in group” that, on the contrary, we can no longer allow it, given the obstinacy with which “the others” think first of all about their business. They settle, perhaps, with a multinational command in Italy, as was already done in the past in Florence, in which to pass the winter in rotation some General or Colonel on retirement. But on the significant issues, which affect the future of the next generations, their generations, certainly all hold their cards well, as always.

Instead, it is necessary a reflection on the peculiarities of our interests, carefully selecting the countries able to share them, if necessary by reconsidering the details of alliances such as NATO and the EU if they prove to be excessively in Atlantic and northern European traction. This will be necessary and essential if these alliances continue to do be sensitive to our particular needs, as also happened in the recent past, with particular reference to Libya, Syria and Ukraine firstly, without forgetting the Balkans, turned into a jumble of small states hostile to each other and at the mercy of the jihadist movements that during the war to Serbia have taken roots in the area. Subject of particular reflection should also be the relations with Russia, as we are concerned, even simply for purely geographical reasons, to have stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East and to prevent migration processes from Africa such as those we are suffering. This is not to betray the Atlantic alliance, but to convince it that the interests of our continent can not be defined and decided only by 6000 km away, over the Atlantic.

But I think it will be hard! 

 

 

 

 

Interview with Israeli Deputy Ambassador Dan Haezrachy

Interview with Israeli Deputy Ambassador   Dan Haezrachy - ATLANTIS

The recent abstentions of Italy at UNESCO on the resolution that denies again the millennial bond between Jews and the holy sites of Jerusalem, has been harshly condemned by the former premier Renzi. A comment?

What happened in the Unesco headquarters is the demonstration of what Israel is denouncing for years: the inability of the United Nations to be a fair player in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel has always denounced the UN and its agencies use - UNESCO firstly - to delegitimize not only the State of Israel, not only the ideology at its base (Zionism), but the entire Jewish history. Obviously, the case of Jerusalem has been one of the most clamorous and sad. The problem, however, is general: the same creation of UNRWA, an agency responsible for the Palestinian refugees issue, is one of the problems of the conflict: the agency allows the transmission of the status of refugee perpetually, on the contrary to what happen for refugees of the rest of the world under UNHCR responsibility. By doing so, from less than one million potential refugees, UNRWA itself has helped to make the problem of refugees almost insolvent. Returning to UNESCO I have to say that, by choosing abstention, many Western diplomats have not only allowed the negation of the relationship between Jerusalem and Judaism, but also that between the Holy City and Christianity. An error of which, as is known, has noticed the same former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who publicly rejected the Italian abstention and declared that Rome will directly undertake in changing its position and that of other European countries. Unfortunately, only a week from that resolution, another Unesco Commission approved a new similar resolution. In this case, Italy was not among the 21 voting countries. Despite this, I really hope that Italy will be at the forefront of this battle against the delegitimization of Israel, especially because in Rome lives the oldest Jewish community in Europe, heir of the deportation of the Jews after the destruction of the Second Temple Jerusalem by the Romans (just think of the Arch of Titus near the Coliseum).

 

Regardless of the position expressed in the Unesco offices, which are the currents Israeli - Italy relations?

Israel and Italy have the excellent relations in all sectors. Israelis feel a particular cultural affinity with Italian people, and every year hundreds of them choose Italian regions as tourist destinations. Suffice it to say that, according to our data, 4% of Israelis visit Italy annually. For a country of 8 million people, it is a very high percentage. Relations between Rome and Jerusalem, however, are developed in many other sectors, especially in the academic sector, in technology and in the security and military one, particularly important today for the instability that is facing the Mediterranean region. Let me add that, recently, also arise the Parliamentary Association of Friendship Italy - Israel, chaired by the Hon. Bernardo. In a short time, this association obtained the support of over 170 Members of Parliament, practically of all political groups. I think it is a very good political signal, and we are confident that this association will help deepen relations between the two countries.

How can we describe the current state of economic relations between Israel and Italy?

As said previously, I would say that the relationship is very good. In recent years, Israel and Italy collaborate. They have signed agreements for cooperation in key sectors such as space - from 2013 there is collaboration between the Israeli Space Agency and the Italian one. In 2017 our space agency will support the Italian mission Prisma. In its turn, the Italian Space Agency will continue to support SHALOM mission, the launch of satellites for the Earth observation with hyperspace technologies. In the military sector, Finmeccanica has realized the plane M-346, used by the Israeli Air Forces for training. Regarding the economy, suffice it to say that the bilateral trade overtakes 3.178 billion euro, with an increase of Italian exports toward Israel by 5.8% in recent years (for a total of 2.275 million euro). In turn, Italy imports from Israel products for a total of 902 million Euros. All this without forgetting the academic sector: Italians universities have drew up over 90 cooperation agreements with Israeli universities.

 

Israel is investing in innovation and in technology applied to development and to services, which future can we  glimpse for Israel and what opportunities for Italian investments?

Before the discovery of the presence of important offshore energy resources in front of the coasts of Israel, the Jewish State has to confront only on its intellectual and manuals forces in order to grow. From this awareness, arises the Israeli innovation: a success that has led many experts to define Israel a real “Start-up Nation”. Today, we continue to believe that innovation will be the carrier engine of the future and that is why we believe essential the sharing of information and and the know-how. In this context, opportunities for Italian companies are and will be many, in every possible area.

Considering the strategic position of Israel, what does it matter today the picture of common alliances for the stability of the Middle East area?

I do not have to describe you what is happening in the Middle East. In this context, the geopolitics of the region is changing radically and, at least for now, we can not delineate definitive conclusions. I can definitely say to you that Israel sees Iran and jihadist Islamism (Shiite and Sunni), the main dangers. For us, Tehran remains the danger number one, not only for its anti-Semitic character and the expressing intention to destroy Israel, but also because behind much of the same Sunni jihadism, there is the long arm. Just think of the Iranian role in the financing of Sunni terrorism in the Gaza Strip, especially to Hamas and to the Islamic Jihad. In the context of the alliances, we consider fundamental the agreements with Egypt and Jordan. Stability and economic growth of these Countries also represent a success for Israel and for this we are directly involved with economic and military cooperation agreements. On our doorstep, then, there is the Syrian drama: a real tragedy in which Iran is one of the main culprits. Israel do not take part in the conflict, despite the numerous Syrian army attempts to force itself to go directly to war. Our army confines itself militarily to react to attacks against our soil and to ensure that the Syrian Golan does not become a base for Iranian Pasdaran, for Hezbollah and for the Sunni jihadists. At humanitarian level, however, we feel directly involved and for this reason the IDF (our army), following its moral code, intervenes by helping the injured who reach the border, without asking whether they are fighters - and for which faction - or civilians. Our only assignment is saving human lives, according to the most important principles of Judaism itself. In spite of the chaos we are living, I want to say that every crisis has got also important opportunities: in this sense, just think of the dialogue that has opened between Israel and the moderate Arab world. Opportunities that Israel is doing everything possible to catch, trying to create, if you allow me this comparison, “a lemonade from the many lemons” (in the sense of achieving stable and profitable deals for the whole region).

 

The experience gained in terms of security and terrorism by Israel could be very useful to Europe. What collaborations are there or could be activated?

After the Isis attacks in Europe, particularly that at Brussels Airport, it has been talked about a lot of Israel’s security model in particularly sensitive areas (in particular airports and train stations). Unfortunately, the important experience that Israel owns in this area it has gained precisely because of the terrorist attacks suffered over the years. Undoubtedly Israel is willing to share this experience in order to improve the security of European citizens. It is all about putting in place a delicate balance between the need to increase controls and that to respect the privacy of citizens. It is not easy, especially because often a whole mentality has to be changed. At the same time, I’m sure that - with good organization and the ability to explain the reasons that determine the need to increase controls - will be able to accept some small sacrifices for the benefit of the security of the entire community. Let me conclude by saying that, in this context, Israel is very proud to have maintained a vibrant democracy, despite the need to live with war and terrorism since birth.

In conclusion, I would like to extend to all the Atlantis readers the best wishes for a happy 2017. 

 

 

 

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